After a four-year-long border standoff, India and China arrived at a detente in October. But can it survive Trump?

New Delhi, India — When China announced the creation of new counties last week, it marked out borders that included swaths of land that India claims as part of Ladakh, a region administered federally by New Delhi.

India was quick to respond with a public protest. The country’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, said New Delhi had “never accepted the illegal Chinese occupation of Indian territory in this area”. China’s announcement, he said, would not give any “legitimacy” to Beijing’s territorial claims.

The latest spat between the Asian giants underscores the fragility of a detente they declared along their contested border in October, after a four-year-long eyeball-to-eyeball standoff between their troops. The neighbours withdrew many of their soldiers, even though questions about the future of land that was previously Indian-controlled but that China has allegedly grabbed since 2020 remain unanswered by both sides.

Now, the India-China relationship appears poised for another big test, say analysts: United States President-elect Donald Trump.

Trump, who effectively launched a trade war with China in his first term, has threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on imports from China. But while describing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “good man”, Trump has also threatened tariffs against India.

As the date of his inauguration – January 20 – approaches, Trump appears to have mellowed a little on China, a country central to the business interests of the incoming US president’s ally, billionaire Elon Musk, who is poised to also have a role in the administration. All of that is sparking unease in sections of India’s strategic community.

Trump “has the tendency to flatter his enemies and unsettle his friends”, said Jayant Prasad, a former Indian diplomat.

In November, soon after winning the US presidential election, Trump said he would “save” the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok, which he had once sought to ban. Trump has also extended an invite to Chinese President Xi Jinping for his inauguration. Beijing has neither accepted nor – at least publicly – rejected the invitation, though some analysts have said that Xi is unlikely to turn up.

On the other hand, Trump is not known to have sent a similar invitation to Modi, with whom the US leader held two joint rallies in 2019 and 2020, in Houston and the Indian city of Ahmedabad. Indian social media is full of memes mocking Modi, suggesting that Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar’s visit to Washington late last month was aimed at pleading with team Trump for an invitation for his boss.